LOUISIANA SENATE RACE – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:   No race this year is more critical to GOP hopes of taking over the U.S. Senate than the one in Louisiana, pitting incumbent Mary Landrieu against an as-yet-unchosen contender.  Landrieu's numbers are dropping.  From The Hill:

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) posts her lowest level of support yet in a new poll of her tough reelection fight.

The survey, from Louisiana-based bipartisan pollster Southerm Media & Opinion Research, gives Landrieu just 36 percent support among likely voters to 35 percent support for Rep. Bill Cassidy (R). Retired Air Force colonel Rob Maness (R) takes 7 percent and state Rep. Paul Hollis (R) has 4 percent support. Seventeen percent are undecided.

It’s the lowest numbers she’s posted in any survey of the race yet, and it’s a drop of five points from SMOR’s last survey, conducted last November.

In Louisiana, all candidates appear on the ballot in November, regardless of party, and if no candidate tops 50 percent support the top two vote-getters head to a December runoff, an outcome expected this cycle.

Though SMOR has done work for candidates of both parties, their last survey of the race was reportedly financed by local GOP donor and businessman Lane Grigsby.

COMMENT:  Assuming the poll is generally accurate, Landrieu is clearly in trouble, but her position is not impossible.  She doesn't poll 50%, but neither does any of her GOP opponents.  Putting the polling numbers of all GOP contenders together yields 46%.  Undecideds usually break for the challenger, so, if the election and runoff were held now, a GOP candidate would probably squeeze by with a victory.

That's good news, but I wouldn't take it to the bank.  This is still a fight, and winnable with the right Republican.

May 9, 2014